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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still